Everyone is waiting on the county to open up and we all want to know when. The stay at home order expires June 4th, however the question is will we be out of the red phase by then. The county is publishing the 14 day numbers now, so I took a look. It looks like we are getting closer to the target. That being said there are a lot of numbers being published and I can't say which ones the folks in Harrisburg are looking at. Here is just the 14 day data and where we need to be

 I decided to take this a bit further and see if I can make a prediction on when we will be out of the red zone. I'm not a medical professional (nor do I play one on tv). I don't have any experience with modeling viral outbreaks, so this is for entertainment purposes only. I played around with some modeling data and I came up with this graph below. I am curious how it plays out over the next few weeks. So far it seems it be holding up. However that can always change, and  Just because it looks good on a graph doesn't mean it is likely to happen.

Note: 6/1/2020

Last week was not good for new case numbers, so my model kind of fell apart. I am assuming people went out for Memorial Day, it doesn't appear to be long term care facilities anymore, although I'm not sure if the data is still being tracked for that. We are most likely going into yellow anyway, so I'm not sure it matters what the numbers are as much.