We've moved to Yellow, despite the data not indicating we should, so analyzing this data is a bit of a fools errand. The difference between Red and Yellow isn't that much anyway, and people weren't abiding by the rules of Red anyway, so it probably doesn't make a huge difference. My last model assumed that the virus will dissipate quickly, which didn't happen. I went back to see what happened, and for the data I had at the time it looked reasonable. I did think that perhaps it would be a slower decline, however at the time there was a rapid decline, and there wasn't any data to show how a slow decline might look. I could have just made a random guess, but I decided to just wait and collect more data. We have a bit more data now, so I decided to try to see how the spread will look like in the future. This is just for my own entertainment, and should not be taken seriously, I have no data modeling or medical experience. This model indicates that cases will be half of the old Yellow target in October. I'll wait to see how this plays out before I see when it goes to zero.

 Note 9/29/2020

Ah sweet summer child using terms like "slow decline" and "going to zero". I thought I also had "Back to School" in here too, but I guess I was prescient enough to not go that far. Anyway we just seem to be in a roller-coaster trend where cases go up and down every month or so.